This is what I found interesting from the current issue of the “The Economist – The world in 2007”.

1)     “It’s been quite a ride. Firing on all cylinders, the world economy powered ahead in 2006 at its fastest pace for over 30 years. But already, heading into 2007, the engine is rattling, the pace is dropping and the road ahead looks a lot bumpier.”

2)     “On the face of it, such astonishing growth is an unambiguously good thing in a country where poverty is still widespread. But it may be storing up problems for future years. Investment is surging but it is unclear how much of this is commercially sound. Overcapacity is rife: as new factories spring up by the day, output of many products is running far ahead of demand, depressing prices and profits and ultimately risking a sharp rise in bad debts as companies struggle to meet loan repayments.”

3)     “It is a rather different story in the United States, the world’s largest economy. Two years of steady interest-rate rises are catching up with America’s serial borrowers, and spending in 2007 looks set to be a lot softer than in the past few years. So soft, in fact, that some economists, while predicting a slowdown, are whispering “recession” to their personal fund managers.”

4)     “Higher interest rates will constrain the ability of individuals and companies to spend.”

5)     “All this suggests a broad-based slowdown which could easily turn into something worse.”

6)     “But prudent central bankers focus on inflation rather than on growth, and with all the price signals flashing red the Fed may not have much room for manoeuvre.”

Page 20 – “Emerging and surging”, - Robin Bew

7)     “Global warming increases the risk of dangerous events, but the timing and frequency of those events are unpredictable, which makes them hard to prepare for.”

8)     “The completion of the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It will be more interesting than it sounds, for it will be gloomier than previous ones, and will cause plenty of argument.”

9)     “A hurricane climatologist resigned because the lead author of the chapter on hurricanes and typhoons gave a press conference attributing the increase in the number of intense storms to climate change. There have been complaints that its predictions of the likely spread of malaria are alarmist, given that economic development, rather than temperature, determines the disease’s prevalence.”

10) “Its new report will surely feature some alarming developments in climate-change science. The melting of Arctic sea ice, for instance, has speeded up. A paper published in September 2006 suggested that perennial sea ice (the sort that is around all year, as opposed to the stuff that melts in summer) shrank by 14% between 2004 and 2005. And the (very slow) rise in sea level seems to have accelerated; the IPCC report is likely to attribute this in part to an increase in glacier flow in Greenland and West Antarctica.”

11) “China will overtake America within the next decade, and India is coming up fast too. Climate change is just starting to become part of the political debate in those countries. But since developed countries, not developing ones, are mostly responsible for the historical build-up of greenhouse gases, it is generally accepted that they have a moral responsibility to act first. So America is regarded as the key to a solution.”

Page 22 – “Feeling the heat” – Emma Duncan

12) “Tim O’Reilly, a publisher in the San Francisco Bay Area, chose the term “Web 2.0” in 2003 primarily as a rallying cry for a valley that was in a deep depression because it had indulged in excess and hype on an epic scale during the late 1990s. So here is that same valley, indulging in much the same excess and hype, only now under the banner “Web 2.0”.”

13) “In 2007 this nonsense will subside, and with much less collateral damage than was caused during the dotcom bust. The previous bubble was blown on Wall Street, and thus on Main Street, as ordinary investors put their savings into dotcoms and lost them. This one is a private-equity bubble that will deflate without pain to small investors.”

14) “They will gradually lose interest in the mass media and defect to “personal” media.”

Page 26 – “When the hype dies down” – Andreas Kluth

15) “Investors will be reminded that ten years will have passed since the stockmarket collapse of 1997, and 20 since that of 1987.”

Page 28 – “It’ll seem like only yesterday” – John Grimond

16) “Venturi, a French car manufacturer, launches a limited edition of its solar-electric-powered car, the Eclectic.”

17) “A collection of some 3m seeds, representing the agricultural diversity of the planet, is completed in Longyearbyen, Norway.”

Page 30 – 31 – “Diary for 2007”

18) “In 2007 this gap between economic clout and political hesitation will shrink—but not for the right reason. Growth is likely to slow, mainly because the government has decided, despite much criticism, to stick to its decision to increase the value-added tax by three percentage points to 19% and slash subsidies. It wants not only to keep the public deficit below the EU-stipulated limit of 3%, but also to push new federal borrowing below investments—a constitutional rule that has been violated for years.”

19) “Corporate tax reform, for its part, will mainly consist of cutting the average tax rate for companies to around 29%.”

20) “By the end of the year BMW and Total open three public hydrogen fuel stations, the first in Europe. Not coincidentally, BMW launches its hydrogen-powered car.”

Page 41 – “Taking centre stage” – Ludwig Siegele

21) “Spain has the highest inflation rate in the euro zone, making its goods increasingly uncompetitive abroad. Consumption has remained buoyant, giving Spain some of the largest current-account and trade deficits in the world. Over the longer term, such imbalances will prove unsustainable.”

22) “Awash with cheap credit, Spanish consumers have gone on a spending spree, keeping the economy aloft. They have amassed a mountain of personal debt. At 120% of disposable income, Spanish households have one of the largest debt burdens in the euro zone. Like Britons, Spaniards have poured money into their homes, pushing prices up by more than 150% in the past decade.”

23) “The government could create a soft landing for the Spanish economy by adopting a restrictive fiscal policy. It has maintained a fiscal surplus, but this is mainly due to buoyant tax receipts rather than lower spending. The International Monetary Fund worries that fiscal policy is still mildly expansionary. And with the economy doing well, there is little incentive to rein in spending.”

Page 42 – “Zappable Zapatero” – Thomas Catan

24) “Resources go mostly into pensions, for Europe’s longest-living and fastest – ageing population, and salaries.”

25) “Leaving little to finance investment, development and research.”

26) “But they are powerless in front of the hundreds of lobbies that infest the country; the refusal by political parties to let go of state-owned business, banks, television channels, universities, health services; and the self-serving, wasteful approach of some regional governments, especially in the south.”

Page 43 – “Avanti, maybe” – Beppe Severgnini

27) “The choice will not be made by the electorate, or United Russia, or some informal cabal. It will be made by Mr Putin.”

28) “Mr Putin seems more interested in safeguarding the power and property arrangements he has created than in raw power for himself.”

Page 47 – “Putin’s choice” – Dmitri Trenin

29) “A new power struggle between an increasingly assertive Russia (rich in oil and gas) and a weak-willed West will start in earnest in 2007. The big battleground will be energy.”

Page 48 – “Power politics” – Edward Lucas

30) “The world is becoming ever smaller.”

31) “Although the world’s size is diminishing, the dimensions of the tasks, problems and challenges facing us are not.”

32) “Brussels to assist national efforts, be it by single-mindedly promoting high-quality research, reducing red tape or improving legislation.”

33) “Given the growing demand for energy around the globe, the impact of climate change and the instability afflicting certain regions of the world, there is a need for greater co-ordination of the member states’ energy policy.”

34) “And should not be enacted over people’s heads.”

Page 50 – “An agenda for Europe” – Angela Merkel

35) “Another is fear that Britain’s debt-fuelled economy may slow, leaving many with an unmanageable financial burden. The government will have to begin to turn off the public-spending tap that has gushed so freely.”

Page 52 – “The end of the affair” – Merril Stevenson

36) “In the first three years after winning power in 1997 the government lived up to its manifesto pledge to be a wise rather than a big spender.”

Page 53 – “After the feast” – Paul Wallace

37) “The big issues”

Page 56 – “The big issues” – David Cameron

38) “But don’t expect any serious attempt to resolve the biggest domestic issue—reforming Medicare (health care for the elderly) and Social Security (pensions). Both programmes are cantering towards insolvency, but fixing them would require pain that neither party cares to inflict on the electorate.”

Page 57 – “And they’re off” – Robert Guest

39) “Rather than slashing interest rates to stave off a slump, America’s central bankers will worry more that inflation is too high.”

40) “Adjusting to slower growth will not be easy. All in all, 2007 will be a year of general glumness. Avoiding recession will be an achievement, but it won’t feel much fun at the time.”

Page 59 – “Diminished expectations” – Zanny Minton Beddoes

41) “Following its most general impulse, the world and the United States will focus on global hotspots while the tectonic economic, environmental and geopolitical plates continue to shift. There is no shortage of crises that require immediate attention.”

42) “In particular, global warming is a reality and portends a dire future for all, should insufficient action be taken.”

Page 64 – “The case for American engagement” – John McCain

43) “Almost all members felt that the greatest threats to food security in the future come, first, from climate change (potential adverse changes in temperature, rainfall and sea level) and, second, from biodiversity loss.”

44) “These were “do ecology” for developing countries, and “don’t ecology” for industrialised countries. The first revolves around activities which will generate an economic stake in conservation and will help to reduce poverty. The “don’t ecology”, by contrast, largely relates to regulations and restrictions in areas such as carbon emissions and the unsustainable consumption of natural resources.”

45) “For 15 years now we have been trying to persuade coastal communities not to destroy the mangrove forests along the coast. But their livelihood preoccupations did not allow them to heed that request.”

46) “Several thousand hectares of rice fields along the coast got inundated with sea water. Most varieties perished, but a few salt-resistant ones withstood the inundation. Conservation of local biodiversity got a shot in the arm, and now every farmer wishes to maintain a field gene bank (ie, on-farm conservation) and a seed bank. The calamity became an opportunity to prepare both fishing and farming communities to meet challenges linked to a rise in sea level. The bio-shield and agro-biodiversity conservation movements in this area have now become community-driven.”

47) “In short, “do ecology” is triggered either by an ecological disaster or an economic opportunity.”

Page 80 – “Out of calamity, conservation” – M. S. Swaminathan

48) “What Harold Macmillan famously called “events, dear boy, events” can so easily upset the best-laid plans—and predictions. Events happen, and they change the outlook.”

Page 89 – “Our rights and wrongs” – Daniel Franklin

49) “On the other, it has led to large-scale violations of the rights of individuals and of societies—from nations to civilisations. This assault of unification, which ignores the deep differences between people and their fundamental needs and ways of interacting with the world around them, has given rise to the anti-globalisation revolt, which is itself a driving force for the formation of the new world order.”

50) “The new generally accepted “fair price” for oil of $40-60 per barrel will stimulate serious capital investment in alternative, “borderline cost-efficient” fuels.”

51) “New leadership: abandonment of the model of increasing material consumption in favour of improvement in the quality of life, an increase in the intellectual component of the consumer basket.”

52) “Human nature is extremely conservative, and there is of course a strong desire to postpone making such a radical decision.”

Page 90 – “Letter from Siberia” – Mikhail Khodorkovksy

53) “So far, globalisation has proved remarkably resilient. It has marched on in recent years, despite natural disasters, terrorist attacks, bloody regional conflicts, trade tensions, various economic shocks and the concerted efforts of anti-globalists. But that is no cause for complacency in what promises to be a risk-laden 2007.”

Page 91 – “A year of fear” – Leo Abruzzese

54) “I co-chair the commission with Hernando de Soto, a Peruvian economist who champions the idea that the poor remain poor in part because they do not have legal rights.”

55) “As Mr de Soto points out, the majority of the world’s poor live outside the protections of law—in some countries the percentage is as high as 80% of the population. These citizens do not own the houses or apartments in which they live, have no title to the land they till, cannot prove that the livestock they feed and care for are their own, do not qualify for credit and have no legal licence to sell what they produce. Many do not possess any legal documents, even a birth certificate or proof of identity. Constantly vulnerable, they may be exploited by all who wield power, including criminals, predatory government officials, unscrupulous employers and single-minded developers who may want to move the poor out of the way.”

56) “But not necessarily more independent.”

57) “A legal system that is not skewed to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor.”

58) “Other financial services; strengthening the rule of law through independent and transparent institutions; simplifying government bureaucracy to create a better environment for business; and fostering participatory democracy through non-governmental organisations.”

59) “By design, the commission is made up of policymakers with a first-hand understanding of how laws get made and how public policy is brokered.”

60) “A disconnection between government efforts and the vast majority of Tanzanians who are excluded from participating in a market economy.”

61) “The world economy will benefit enormously from the contributions of those who are able to move from a state of dependency to full participation.”

Page 95 – “It’s time for empowerment” – Madeleine Albright

62) “Unlike short-term behavioural changes, efficiency investments are irreversible: you do not scrap fuel-frugal boilers or remove roof insulation when fuel prices drop, so efficiency ratchets up. And frugality will involve more than incrementalism: efficiency often yields expanding returns.”

63) “In 2007, too, Toyota will emerge as the leader in super-efficient plug-in hybrid cars: electric for short commutes, petrol-hybrid for long trips. This could double the already doubled petrol efficiency of a Prius. Next, make that car ultralight and its petrol efficiency redoubles. Biofuel it and you quadruple petrol efficiency again, to 30 times today’s norm. Sound like the whale-oil story yet? Oil prices will drop—but efficiency will remain cheaper still.”

64) “It surely follows that getting off oil—thus abating 42% of global carbon-dioxide emissions—will be led by business for profit.”

65) “In 2007 Boeing’s 20%-more-efficient but same-price 787 will take flight. In Detroit, Schumpeterian “creative destruction” will accelerate as smart money favours leapfrogs; markets will change managers or their minds, whichever happens first. Ford’s new chief executive, Alan Mulally, whose efficiency-based Boeing strategy is beating Airbus, will bring to Ford Boeing’s focus on ultralight materials (the 787 is 50% advanced composites), systems integration and breakthrough design.”

66) “It will also speed key technologies, like ultralight materials, that can triple the efficiency of civilian cars, trucks and planes—just as military R&D created the internet, GPS, and the jet and chip industries. Thus the Pentagon will start to lead America, and the world, off oil so nobody need fight over it.”

67) “The bet of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that he could hold fuel customers to ransom will eventually turn sour.”

68) “Decisive evidence will emerge that stabilising the earth’s climate is in fact not costly but profitable.”

Page 129 – “Getting off oil” – Amory Lovins

69) “The world economy is clearly slowing.”

70) “Second, we must establish why a cyclical downturn nonetheless lies ahead.”

71) “The structural changes since the early 1990s have created a new business environment which is not just more profitable but also more leveraged, yet paradoxically more stable, than ever before. The paradox of higher leverage combined with stability can partly be explained by the rise of a new business model, sometimes called the “platform company”, through the interaction of free trade, technology and the rise of Asia.”

72) “Platform companies are globally ubiquitous businesses which sell everywhere but produce nowhere: firms such as Nokia, Dell, IKEA, Apple or LVMH. They have discovered that many traditional businesses can be broken into three distinct components—design, production and marketing.”

73) “The platform companies have responded by outsourcing most of their production to emerging markets, while keeping for themselves the profitable design and marketing ends of the value chain. As a result, they have become less capital-intensive, more profitable and less unstable than traditional firms.”

74) “An overlooked result of this greater stability is that workers in America and Europe are much less exposed to cyclical unemployment and can therefore afford to borrow more. Moreover, this credit is far more readily available and less costly to service because of the next benign change in the global economy: the low inflation which is another by-product of intensified global competition. Low and stable inflation has kept interest rates very low, which in turn has reinforced a third great structural change—financial deregulation.”

75) “But despite the very favourable long-term outlook, cyclical fluctuations have not been entirely abolished and on this score many investors could find 2007 an awkward year. Booming global growth has made markets ultra-bullish about energy, commodities and other economically sensitive assets. As a result, the riskiest companies and countries have done far better than more stable businesses since the end of the recession in 2002.”

76) “This pattern is set to change in 2007. With growth palpably slowing, the big issue for investors at the end of 2006 was whether the world was on the brink of an outright recession or only a “mid-cycle slowdown” similar to the soft landings of 1995-96 and 1984-85. For financial markets the distinction is crucial.”

77) “Within the equity market, moreover, a mid-cycle slowdown is likely to trigger a sector rotation: cyclical equities such as commodities and manufacturing companies do badly while market leadership shifts to larger companies with reliable cash generation and steady long-term growth. This kind of sectoral rotation is likely to be the biggest financial story of 2007.”

78) “Non-cyclical equities prosper. Meanwhile, commodities, industrial equities and other cyclical assets could suffer a severe bear market. Within each asset class a similar shift from highly cyclical to stable, higher-quality investments is likely.”

79) “Stable businesses such as food, services and health care should generally do better than industrial and primary sectors, and large stocks should beat small companies for the first time since 1999.”

80) “They are not yet prepared for a major rotation out of bonds, commodities, small companies and emerging markets into big, stable growth stocks. And since markets like nothing better than to wrongfoot investors, this rotation is all the more likely to occur.”

Page 131 – 132 – “When markets rotate” – Anatole Kaletsky

81) “Serious questions remain about the extent to which parts of the sector are dependent on government subsidies.”

82) “The wind market is probably the most developed. Three of the four largest environmental companies by market value (Suzlon from India, Gamesa from Spain and Vestas from Denmark) are wind groups, according to Impax. Turbine manufacturers should prosper in 2007, says Bruce Jenkyn-Jones, Impax’s director of investments: 28 different countries are growing wind capacity, which means that turbines are sold out to 2008. So manufacturers can push through price increases.”

Page 132 – 134 – “Hot money” – Philip Coggan

83) “Thanks to cheap money, sleepy management and relatively benign stockmarkets, private equity has been a one-way bet for the past five years. But in 2007 investors accustomed to eye-popping returns should brace themselves for tougher times.”

84) “European companies’ debt multiples relative to earnings have been creeping up steadily. Because private equity relies on leverage as well as efficient management of assets, a sharp rise in interest rates would leave frothy deals exposed. Some of them might fail spectacularly in 2007.”

85) “Carlyle, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and other big buy-out firms raised upwards of $200 billion, giving them the muscle to attempt deals of vast scale.”

86) “One new trend to watch closely in the coming year: private-equity firms unpackaging companies and selling the assets to cash-rich China and Middle Eastern investors awash with petro-dollars.”

87) “Yet the increase in buy-out activity will come at a cost: greater attention from politicians, regulators, labour unions and journalists. The spotlight will irk an industry which has tended to treat transparency as a dirty word.”

88) “In the United States, which often sets the fashion, hedge funds were pressured to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission; the net may spread to private-equity firms.”

89) “Over the past five years the environment for private equity has been extraordinarily permissive. As owners heavily involved in their own business, private-equity firms have felt no pressure to inform the wider world of their activities. In 2007 the climate will change. The advantages of private equity look like being eroded by its own success. The danger is that the cure will be worse than the complaint.”

Page 134 – 135 – “The grapes of froth” – Lionel Barber

90) “Now there really is a giant sucking sound—not one made by the flight of jobs, but by China ferociously hoovering up commodities and raw materials. Although it accounts for roughly 4% of global GDP (measured at market exchange rates), China consumes 30% of the world’s supply of minerals and other raw materials. This time around, the world has not only heard the sucking sound, but has also felt its effects, as the prices of commodities such as iron ore, copper and zinc have soared, doubling or tripling in just a couple of years.”

91) “Much of this growth is driven by fixed-asset investment, which now accounts for more than 50% of GDP a year—a higher proportion than that of any other country at any time in history. This relentless capacity for expansion has created an insatiable demand for raw materials.”

92) “China also wastes a lot.”

93) “China’s wasteful growth has brought joy to commodity producers and their bankers and shareholders worldwide.”

94) “A clear sign of overheating is the increase in accounts receivable. Although sales appear robust, Chinese firms are beginning to find it difficult to get paid in cash, either because their buyers cannot turn over their own stocks fast enough or because they have trouble borrowing money to finance their purchases. The receivables of the 166 largest state-controlled Chinese firms rose by 14% in the first half of 2006 from a year earlier. For over a third of these firms, receivables now account for more than 30% of total sales, which is twice as high as the average gross margin for Chinese firms. It was the escalating volume of ‘‘triangular debts’’ or receivables between different domestic firms that led to the overheating and consequent severe austerity programme in the mid-1990s.

95) “China’s growth has become too expensive in many ways. Overinvestment pulls up prices of raw materials but, simultaneously, overcapacity depresses the prices of finished products.”

96) “As anyone who has been to the mainland in recent years knows, all the major cities are choking with smoke and environmental damage has reached appalling levels. The government knows this and during 2006 tightened the screw on the economy several more turns. Interest rates will continue to rise. The trouble is that much of the liquidity comes from hot money, which finds its way into China around foreign-exchange controls in anticipation of a yuan appreciation. Each rise in interest rates only encourages more speculative inflows.”

97) “The central bank has taken other measures to reduce liquidity, including telling banks not to lend to ‘‘overheated sectors’’ such as steel, cement, coal and power, and forcing them to buy central-bank bills.”

98) “The economy will grow more slowly in 2007. This will help the country make the transition from investment-led growth to expansion led by private consumption. The slowdown of the American economy, China’s largest export market, will further force China to focus on stimulating domestic demand.”

Page 135 – 136 – “China roaring” – Weijian Shan

99) “Will this continue? Probably not. Slower economic growth, especially in the rich world, will curb demand for commodities and help hold prices down. Interest rates are also rising in many parts of the world, and as investors become more risk-averse some will turn away from commodities. Hedge funds, which did so much to sustain the boom, are especially likely to find new places for their cash. And producers, encouraged by five years of high prices, will do a better job of getting new supplies to where they need to be.”

100)                     “The effect on prices will vary according to the commodity. Crude oil will remain high, at $65 a barrel in 2007, not much different from a year earlier. A slower-growing America will use less oil, but developing countries will use more. What little new oil is pumped will be quickly consumed, providing little extra cushion to global capacity. A tight market will be vulnerable to tensions in the Middle East and Africa and prices will remain volatile. Only a sharper economic slowdown will cause prices to weaken.”

101)                     “After surging by nearly 50% in 2006, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s index of industrial commodities prices will ease by 3% in 2007.”

102)                     “The price outlook for farm commodities is mixed. Sugar, maize and oilseeds, which are used for biofuels, will benefit from high energy prices.”

Page 136 – “Commodities forecast”

103)                     “The awkwardly named Markets in Financial Services Directive, known as MiFID, is due to take effect from November 2007.”

104)                     “If rolled out as intended (national regulators may still cause delays), over time MiFID will dramatically change the way that stocks, bonds and derivatives are traded.”

105)                     “Many financial firms will have to alter computer systems and compliance procedures, creating a potential boon for consultants. However, these costs need not be overwhelming; big investment banks regularly update and modify such systems anyway.”

106)                     “Financial exchanges, recognising the looming possibility of head-to-head competition, as well as growing threats from off-exchange trading, are already preparing themselves. This is evident in their ongoing mating rites (thus far unconsummated in Europe), as well as in new product and pricing initiatives.”

107)                     “Individual and institutional investors are those that Mr McCreevy hopes will ultimately gain from the choice, value and transparency that mifid promises. Particularly in light of Europe’s brewing pensions crisis, an efficient, well-run regional market in investment and savings products will be most welcome.”

Page 138 – “Miffed with MiFID” – Julie Sell

108)                     “According to what was on the table in July, all forms of export subsidies would be eliminated by 2013, trade-distorting domestic support would be cut by at least 60% and tariffs on farm products would be cut by over 50%.”

109)                     “Under the new approach no product would be shielded from tariff reduction. There would be a broader package on services, closer co-operation in environmental policies, more equitable rules on anti-dumping and a sharp reduction in trade’s red tape.”

110)                     “One is that the majority of the truly needy in developing countries live on the land; politicians are wary of any change which may harm their subsistence farmers. Another reason is that farmers tend to possess disproportionate political clout. Farmers cosseted by generous government support or high barriers to imports are keen to preserve the status quo.”

111)                     “An agreement underpinning American growth, promoting poverty alleviation in the developing world and enhancing global co-operation is without question in the interest of the United States.”

Page 140 – “Doha’s final deadline” – Pascal Lamy

112)                     “More and more drugs developed to treat disease are turning out also to offer the potential to “enhance” the cognitive powers of healthy people, and to push human life expectancy much further, perhaps to 115 years and beyond.”

113)                     ““Nick Bostrom, an Oxford University philosopher and advocate of transhumanism, is “a work in progress, a half-baked beginning that we can learn to remould in desirable ways…we shall eventually manage to become posthuman, beings with vastly greater capacities than present human beings have.””

114)                     “Francis Fukuyama of Johns Hopkins University describes transhumanism as one of “the world’s most dangerous ideas”. But whatever you may think, the possibilities for changing your nature by direct biochemical intervention are arriving now.”

115)                     “Transhumanists question the conventional wisdom that the human lifespan is coming to a natural limit.”

116)                     “We already know that cutting back severely on calories in the diet can give life expectancy a remarkable boost—between 30% and 50%.”

117)                     “Drugs may provide the benefits of calorie restriction without the pains of the diet.”

118)                     “Rather, calorie restriction appears to trigger natural defences designed to boost the chances of survival during periods of food scarcity. As many of those defensive responses are co-ordinated by a set of genes called sirtuins, there is a chance that drugs can be used to trigger their action directly, without the diet. Chemicals that affect sirtuin activity have been found in plants and one, resveratrol, extends lifespan in test animals. In one species of fish, maximum lifespan increased by almost 60%. Humans will be pleased to know that resveratrol occurs naturally in red wine.”

119)                     “But one thing is certain: whatever ailment drugs may be developed to treat, if they can also be used to provide someone with a competitive advantage, or prolong life, people will take them.”

Page 141 – 142 – “Towards immortality” – Alun Anderson

120)                     “The possibilities offered by low-cost gene sequencing are endless. Biologists will be able quickly to sequence the genomes of hundreds of organisms and plot the path of evolution. Medical researchers will track the tiny gene changes that underlie cancer. Your own personal genome will give clues, if you want them or your health insurer demands them, about diseases you might suffer from. And personalised medicine will truly arrive, with doctors able to tailor treatments that will match your individual genetic make-up. No wonder the race is on.”

Page 142 – “Ready, steady, sequence” – Alun Anderson

121)                     “GlaxoSmithKline, a pharmaceutical company, expects to begin mass-production of a vaccine for the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu early in the year.”

Page 143 – “Big science” – Alison Goddard

122)                     “It will say that greenhouse gases are at their highest levels for at least 650,000 years, and possibly many millions of years more; that there is a high likelihood that the modest global warming of the past 50 years can be attributed to the industrial pumping out of those greenhouse gases; and that further warming is unavoidable.”

123)                     “Even with sustained growth in energy efficiency and carbon-free generation, there is more warming in store. How fast we should move in cutting emissions will still be a source of vigorous debate in 2007. But the need to start will be clearer than ever.”

Page 144 – “Cool it” – Oliver Morton

124)                     “The most exciting discoveries will come from the serendipitous combination and integration of data drawn from diverse sources.”

Page 146 – “Welcome to the Semantic Web" – Tim Berners-Lee